Week 17 fantasy football matchup rankings: Upgrade Harold Fannin Jr., downgrade Jameson Williams
Making tough lineup decisions every week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you're torn between two similar players and simply don't know which one to start, start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
Our matchup rankings provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying on season totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
"Adj. FPA," or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below players' weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it's unfavorable. Also, remember that teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover a team's personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and the ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Drake Maye, New England Patriots (at New York Jets). He has scored at least 20 fantasy points in three straight games, matching Matthew Stafford for the longest active streak among quarterbacks. Maye now faces a Jets defense that hasn't recorded an interception all season -- the only team that can claim that -- and has totaled the fourth-fewest sacks (7) and fifth-fewest quarterback contacts (34). It only helps that his Patriots also have their sights on the No. 1 seed in the AFC (and the bye week that comes with it).
Matchup to avoid: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Houston Texans, Sat. 4:30 p.m. ET). He's coming off his best fantasy performance of the season (30.20 points), but he also benefited from the position's best seasonal and past-five-games matchup in the Dallas Cowboys. The Texans, by comparison, have been the No. 1 schedule-adjusted defense against quarterbacks for the season (minus-4.8 adjusted FPA), and No. 4 over the past five weeks. Over the past seven weeks alone, they've held three of the season's top seven quarterbacks beneath 10 fantasy points: No. 4 Trevor Lawrence (9.82 points in Week 10), No. 1 Josh Allen (8.12, Week 12) and No. 7 Patrick Mahomes (6.30, Week 14).
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Matchups highlight: Drake Maye, New England Patriots (at New York Jets). He has scored at least 20 fantasy points in three straight games, matching Matthew Stafford for the longest active streak among quarterbacks. Maye now faces a Jets defense that hasn't recorded an interception all season -- the only team that can claim that -- and has totaled the fourth-fewest sacks (7) and fifth-fewest quarterback contacts (34). It only helps that his Patriots also have their sights on the No. 1 seed in the AFC (and the bye week that comes with it).
Matchup to avoid: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Houston Texans, Sat. 4:30 p.m. ET). He's coming off his best fantasy performance of the season (30.20 points), but he also benefited from the position's best seasonal and past-five-games matchup in the Dallas Cowboys. The Texans, by comparison, have been the No. 1 schedule-adjusted defense against quarterbacks for the season (minus-4.8 adjusted FPA), and No. 4 over the past five weeks. Over the past seven weeks alone, they've held three of the season's top seven quarterbacks beneath 10 fantasy points: No. 4 Trevor Lawrence (9.82 points in Week 10), No. 1 Josh Allen (8.12, Week 12) and No. 7 Patrick Mahomes (6.30, Week 14).